Sep 5, 2025 | PROBLEM GAMBLING
Prediction markets, platforms where people trade on the outcomes of future events, are experiencing a significant surge in popularity and are moving toward mainstream adoption. How exactly do these markets work, are they legal, do they constitute gambling and should they be regulated to ensure there are protections in place for those who might become addicted?
What are prediction markets?
A prediction market or betting market is an exchange-traded market where individuals can bet on the outcome of a variety of events with an unknown future. These events can involve elections, financial markets (such as whether or not the S&P 500 index will close above a specific level by year end), sports (such as whether a specific football team will win the Super Bowl) or even pop culture (such as whether a specific film will win the Academy Award for best picture). They just have to involve “yes or no” questions that will be resolved by a specific date.
Prediction markets run on a type of financial instrument known as an event contract. An event contract has a nominal value — often $1 — and traders can buy “yes” or “no” positions on it for some fraction of that value. When the event happens, the contract pays out to whoever was right.
For example, an event contract could involve whether Candidate A or Candidate B will win an election. If a trader buys a “yes” position on a Candidate A for 25 cents, and Candidate A ultimately does win the election, the trader would earn $1. But if the trader were wrong and Candidate B won, they’d get nothing and would lose their 25 cents.
From a larger perspective, prediction markets are based on the principle that aggregating the predictions of many individuals can lead to more accurate forecasts than relying on a single expert, opinion or poll.
Do prediction markets constitute gambling?
While there are various legal arguments opining on whether prediction markets constitute gambling or not, the perspective of the National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) is that it doesn’t make a significant difference. “From a problem gambling standpoint, anyone can develop an addiction to this activity, just as they can develop an addiction in legalized gambling markets,” says Cole Wogoman, director of government relations and league partnerships with NCPG.
The need for problem gambling safeguards
“Putting aside whether futures legally constitute gambling, from a problem gambling standpoint, betting on futures is functionally gambling,” says Cole. “The line between purchasing futures and gambling has particularly blurred with markets offered related to sporting events. NCPG is concerned about a form of gambling taking place outside of the responsible gambling tools framework and problem gambling safeguards required by gambling regulators.”
The legality of prediction markets
The legal status of prediction markets is complex and subject to ongoing debate. Historically, regulators have generally taken a firm stance against unlicensed online betting platforms. The central question is whether prediction markets, especially those involving sports outcomes, fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or are also subject to state gambling laws. If prediction markets are not regulated, there will be no protections for consumers.
“Our position is that the CFTC needs to regulate prediction markets so they’re on a par with other legalized forms of gambling and offering the related protections that state and tribal regulators provide,” says Cole. Otherwise, Cole says, the CFTC should not allow these markets.
The issue is particularly concerning to tribes and gambling regulators. “If prediction market activity is allowed without any regulation, it renders the efforts of those who have worked to provide protections for legalized gambling essentially meaningless if people can avoid all the laws already in place,” says Cole. Prediction markets also do not pay any gambling taxes like legalized gambling markets, and therefore do not contribute to funding used to prevent and treat gambling addiction.
Stay tuned as we track continuing developments with regard to prediction markets and NCPG’s efforts to ensure there is appropriate oversight of these potentially dangerous transactions.
Jun 18, 2025 | PROBLEM GAMBLING, RECOVERY, STORIES
I was seven the first time I gambled. We were visiting my grandmother, and the older ladies in her building taught me how to play rummy—for nickels. We played for six hours, and by the end of the night, I’d taken all their money. I remember asking my parents the next day when I could gamble with them again.
There was a lot happening at home around that time. My sister’s teenage pregnancy caused constant tension and uncertainty. Playing cards with my grandmother gave me a break from the chaos.
When I turned 18, I went to the local casino with friends and my dad. I blew through my paycheck in minutes. My dad handed me $50 for my birthday so I could keep playing. I ended up winning some money back. That was cool.
Later, after dropping out of college because I felt homesick and unsure of what I wanted, I became a blackjack dealer. I discovered a benefit for employees—you could cash your paycheck for free at the casino. On payday, I’d often stick around until I either lost everything or doubled my money.
Poker was growing in popularity then, and I got good at it. I played tournaments around the Midwest and would often stay and play more poker or blackjack afterward.
Not long after, I began experiencing serious depression. Doctors gave me different diagnoses, and I was eventually labeled bipolar. I went through intensive rehab for depression.
I got married and moved to Minneapolis, but we didn’t stay long. We returned to rural life, and I got another job at a casino. About a year into the marriage, my husband relapsed after drug treatment. I flushed his drugs down the toilet, and he tried to choke me. A coworker helped me pack up and leave.
I kept working at the casino, but my mental health didn’t improve. Looking back, I can see how gambling highs lifted me way up, and losses sank me just as hard. I attempted suicide multiple times.
After years in and out of treatment, I finally stopped going to casinos. I met my current husband and went several years without the compulsion to gamble. I could even go to a casino with friends or my husband and be responsible.
A year into our marriage, I had my first daughter. I struggled with postpartum depression and soon realized that being a stay-at-home mom wasn’t for me—I needed more social interaction. I started going to the casino in the evenings, just to get out of the house.
Eventually, I took a job as a program coordinator for a home health company. I was working 60 to 70 hours a week, often leaving before my daughter woke up and coming home after she was asleep.
A year later, I got pregnant again. My son was born with a heart condition and passed away a week after birth. That sent me into a tailspin. I didn’t want to go back to work. I went on extended medical leave and returned to therapy.
After my sessions, I’d often go to the casino. That’s when my husband first voiced concern. He asked me to talk to my therapist about it—but I didn’t.
I got another job and became pregnant again. Despite everything, I still found reasons to go to the casino. I opened a separate bank account so my husband couldn’t see how much I was spending—or losing. He started to worry about our finances.
About three years ago, I lied to my husband so I could spend the day gambling. I stayed at the casino for 14 hours, lost everything in our accounts and maxed out all of our credit cards, including the ones he didn’t know about. That night, I realized this was more than depression. I remembered hearing the term “compulsive gambling” when I worked at casinos but had never imagined it applied to me. I even called the 800 number posted on the casino door—but hung up when someone finally answered.
A few weeks later, my husband found a W-2G form showing gambling winnings I hadn’t told him about. He started asking more questions about our finances. I still didn’t tell him I had drained our 401(k) or spent $29,000 worth of insurance checks we got for roof repairs as gambling money. I thought I could double it. I didn’t.
I kept losing. Then one night, before heading out, I wrote my husband a letter telling him everything. I left it on the counter with our credit cards and checking info. I told him I’d understand if he didn’t want to try anymore.
He read the letter after putting our kids to bed. He called me and told me to come home so we could talk. It was the longest night of my life. I felt like the worst person in the world.
That Sunday, I went to my first GA meeting. We researched treatment options and found the Vanguard Center for Gambling Recovery 30 miles away. I called them the next day and signed up.
I completed a 30-day inpatient program. It was the hardest and best thing I’ve ever done—especially being away from my kids with only limited contact.
Since then, I haven’t gambled. I attend two to three GA meetings a week and stay connected with others in recovery. I even went to the first international GA conference since COVID. I’ve found peace among people who understand what I’ve been through.
Now, life is boring—and that’s a good thing. Boring means peace, stability, and being present for my family.
Jun 18, 2025 | PROBLEM GAMBLING, SPORTS BETTING
The NCAA is considering a significant revision to its sports betting policy that would permit student-athletes, coaches and staff to wager on professional sports, while maintaining the existing ban on betting related to collegiate athletics. This potential policy shift, currently under discussion by the Division I Council, follows a 21–1 vote by the Division I Board of Directors in favor of deregulating the prohibition on professional sports wagering. If approved, the changes could be implemented as early as June 2025.
With legalized sports betting now available in 40 states, the NCAA's current blanket ban has become increasingly challenging to enforce, often leading to disciplinary actions for minor infractions involving low-stakes bets. By allowing betting on professional sports, the NCAA aims to reallocate its enforcement resources to focus on more serious threats to the integrity of college sports, such as point-shaving and game-fixing.
The NCAA is also exploring the implementation of harm-reduction strategies, including safe harbor provisions and reduced penalties for individuals who seek help for problem gambling. This approach reflects a broader shift in the NCAA's stance on sports betting, emphasizing education and support over punitive measures.
Lastly, the NCAA and Genius Sports have expanded their partnership, with Genius Sports becoming the exclusive provider of official NCAA game data to licensed sportsbooks for all post-season tournaments, including March Madness, through 2032.
This potential policy change aligns with the NCAA's recent initiatives to modernize its approach to sports betting, as evidenced by its expanded partnership with Genius Sports to distribute official game data to licensed sportsbooks.
MNAPG’s Take
While MNAPG is officially gambling-neutral, we have concerns that the NCAA is capitulating to the pressures of ever-growing sports gambling. While we applaud the NCAA’s exploration of harm-reduction strategies, we fear the long-term implications of these developments will be serious for college students and athletes.
Some of the real-time data provided by Genius Sports to sportsbook is used to generate and continuously update odds for various in-play prop bets, such as "next goal scorer" or "next touchdown.” Given the high risks involved with prop bets, we think the ready and uniform availability of official data will only feed this concern.
Mar 14, 2025 | PROBLEM GAMBLING, RESEARCH
Read the original article on the BASIS HERE.
By Kira Landauer, MPH
Adolescent gambling is common, with many young people gambling before reaching a legal gambling age. This is concerning because underage gambling increases the risk of experiencing gambling problems later in life. Parental attitudes and behaviors are crucial to positive youth development, and gambling behaviors are no exception. This week, The WAGER reviews a study by Cassandra K. Dittman and colleagues that examined adolescent gambling from the perspective of parents in New South Wales, Australia.
What were the research questions?
(1) What are parents’ knowledge of and attitudes towards their adolescent child’s gambling? (2) Are adolescents exposed to gambling via their parents’ gambling?
What did the researchers do?
The researchers recruited 1,185 parents (31% fathers, 69% mothers) of adolescents in New South Wales, Australia. Participants completed an online survey. They were asked about their attitudes towards adolescent gambling and ranked their concern with gambling alongside other adolescent issues (e.g., bullying, alcohol use). Parents reported both their adolescent child’s and their own gambling behavior over the past 12 months and whether they had gambled with their adolescent present. The researchers used descriptive statistics to explore parental attitudes towards gambling and adolescent gambling exposure and gambling behavior. They used comparison tests such as ANOVA to examine differences across these facets by parent and adolescent gender.
What did they find?
Most parents disapproved of adolescent exposure to gambling. However, parents were less concerned with gambling compared to other adolescent issues like bullying and drug use. Twenty-seven percent of parents reported that their adolescent had gambled in the past year. Of the 947 parents who reported past-year gambling themselves, two-thirds had gambled with their adolescent present. Skin betting and fantasy sports betting were the most common parent-adolescent gambling activities (see Figure). Compared to mothers, fathers engaged in more gambling in the presence of their adolescent. Fathers also gambled more with their adolescent sons compared to daughters.
Figure. Frequency of adolescent exposure to their parent’s gambling in the past year, by gambling activity and among parents who participated in that gambling activity. Please note: Figure does not depict the percent of parents from the sample who participated in each activity. For example, 12.0% of parents participated in skin betting in the past 12 months. Of them, 74.6% did so in the presence of their adolescent child at least once. Click image to enlarge.
Why do these findings matter?
Adolescents often gamble with the knowledge of their parents, and that some parents–particularly fathers–actively facilitate their child’s gambling by involving them in their personal gambling activities. Parents may underestimate the risks associated with adolescent gambling. This could be because gambling is generally perceived as socially acceptable and often portrayed positively (e.g., through advertisements). Parents, and fathers in particular, could benefit from increased awareness and education about the risks associated with youth gambling, through initiatives like the GambleAware Parents Campaign.
Every study has limitations. What are the limitations of this study?
Participants might not have been fully representative of the Australian parent population and their responses may be subject to self-report biases such as recall bias. This study examined parental knowledge of their adolescent child’s gambling. It is possible that adolescents gamble more than their parents realize, so the frequency of adolescent gambling reported by parents may be an underestimate.
For more information:
The Massachusetts Department of Public Health provides information for parents about the risks of teen gambling and a guide for talking about gambling. Do you think that you or someone you know might have a gambling problem? Visit the National Council on Problem Gambling for screening tools and resources. For additional resources, including gambling and self-help tools, visit our Addiction Resources page.
— Kira Landauer, MPH
Mar 4, 2025 | ADVOCACY, PROBLEM GAMBLING, RESEARCH
Last fall, a lengthy report on the state of gambling was published in The Lancet Public Health, a British monthly journal that focuses on public health. The report (The Lancet Public Health Commission on gambling Wardle, Heather et al. The Lancet Public Health, Volume 9, Issue 11, e950 - e994) provides a comprehensive view of the development of gambling in the last two centuries.
The Lancet Public Health Commission's report on gambling highlights the escalating global public health crisis posed by the gambling industry, particularly due to its rapid digital expansion. The commission estimates that approximately 450 million individuals worldwide experience harmful effects from gambling, with at least 80 million suffering from gambling disorder—a condition characterized by compulsive gambling behavior despite negative consequences.
The report states that the proliferation of mobile and online gambling platforms has made access easier than ever, contributing to the rise in gambling-related harms. Sophisticated marketing strategies, including targeted digital advertising and sports sponsorships, have increased exposure, especially among adolescents and children. This exposure is concerning, as early interaction with gambling increases the risk of developing gambling disorders later in life.
The commission identifies several severe consequences associated with gambling, including financial losses, mental health issues, family breakdowns, heightened risk of suicide, and increased crime rates. These harms are not evenly distributed; vulnerable groups such as adolescents and individuals from lower socioeconomic backgrounds are disproportionately affected.
To address these challenges, the commission advocates for stronger global regulatory controls, similar to those applied to alcohol and tobacco industries. Recommended measures include restricting access to gambling, limiting advertising and implementing public health campaigns to raise awareness about the risks associated with gambling. The commission emphasizes the need for policymakers to treat gambling as a critical public health issue to mitigate its widespread and profound impact.
In summary, the report calls for comprehensive action to curb the growing public health threat posed by the gambling industry's expansion, particularly in the digital realm.
Mar 4, 2025 | PROBLEM GAMBLING
In light of the growing number of players who are becoming addicted to gambling—and suffering considerable harm to themselves and others in the process—many observers would agree that the gambling industry needs to change to ensure its sustainability over the long term. But how might it do that, or at least start the process?
Dr. Shawn DuBravac, PhD, CFA, an economist, futurist, bestselling author and internationally recognized thought leader, gave the industry a new perspective to think about during his keynote presentation at the annual conference of New Horizons in Safer Gambling.
Emphasizing the importance of disruption to the status quo as a starting point for change, Dr. DuBravac drew upon examples of how other businesses and industries have evolved over time to find new opportunities and embrace new strategies that prioritize health and wellbeing without compromising on engagement and profitability.
Dr. DuBravac noted that consumer preferences are shifting toward more sustainable and healthier options, and explained how business sectors are adapting to meet consumers where they are at.
Among his many examples was how Volvo emerged as a leader in safety in the automobile industry. He noted that an engineer at Volvo invented the three-point seat belt in 1959 that’s still used today. Volvo made a groundbreaking decision to release the patent to the entire automotive industry for free rather than profit from it. This decision was made in the interest of public safety so that everyone could have access to the life-saving invention. The three-point safety belt quickly became a standard feature in vehicles around the world. By prioritizing safety above everything else, Volvo created a whole new consumer segment—those who view car safety as most important factor in their purchasing decisions.
What might this look like in gambling? Might a company in the industry change the landscape by forging a new path that truly embraces safety for gamblers, creating a significant competitive advantage in the process?
Dr. DuBravac also cited how the world of professional cycling was completed upended when a new performance director came on the scene. By focusing on what he referred to as “the aggregation of marginal gains,” the director brought a relentless focus to a new strategy based on the search for a tiny margin of improvement in everything that was done. While the focus was on every possible aspect of biking, the philosophy can be applied to other industries, including gambling.
With a fresh perspective, safer play can be seen as an opportunity rather than an obligation. Perhaps the focus can be on what the industry wants to do rather than what it can’t change. While the industry can’t eliminate all harms from gambling, it can take steps to make it safer. Happy, healthy players who are having fun with their play are key to a sustainable industry and responsible growth. How do gambling businesses make safer play a competitive advantage?
Safer play can take many forms—it can be gamifying tools that help players set limits; it can be choosing products where risks are reduced or mitigated; and it can be determining how to market to players of varying risk levels. Safer play is also about how the industry supports its players through challenging conversations, and understanding how to interact with those who demonstrate high-risk behaviors.
The incorporation of innovative technologies and strategies can provide win-win solutions for safer consumer experiences while cultivating loyal, long-term success. Ultimately, safer play is good for business. Safer play needs to become the competitive advantage.
